mckinsey financial industry report

For the global payments sector, the events of 2020 have reset expectations and significantly accelerated several existing trends. annual banking report, McKinsey said that the industry needs to continue its digital makeover to protect the up to 40 percent of revenues at risk by … While some categories of spending rebounded, consumers’ well-documented shift from the point of sale (POS) to digital commerce accounts for the reduced use of cash. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. Discretionary spending initially sank by 40 percent globally. McKinsey uses cookies to improve site functionality, provide you with a better browsing experience, and to enable our partners to advertise to you. In Latin America, which is characterized by a significant unbanked population, cash usage will likely remain resilient. Overall, the greatest recovery opportunities reside in countries with low electronic penetration (such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Thailand), as the next normal provides impetus for electronification. Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more. Digital upends old models. New findings on the future of the finance industry released by management consulting firm McKinsey & Company are reverberating through the finance industry and business media.In an annual global banking review, McKinsey sends a clear warning to traditional banks: the digital tsunami is coming and you need to move faster if you hope to remain competitive. Getty. Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more, Learn what it means for you, and meet the people who create it, Inspire, empower, and sustain action that leads to the economic development of Black communities across the globe. Increased volatility and uncertainty have enabled growth in foreign-exchange-related revenues and pushed up treasury-related transactions as companies scramble to mobilize surplus cash. Chapter 2: Merchant acquiring: The rise of merchant services However, countries starting from a high level of digitization (such as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) are also seeing pandemic-induced behavior push cash usage to the minimum—fueling payments-revenue growth. Kausik Rajgopal, McKinsey senior partner, said: “All banks can make bold moves now to prepare for any downturn and improve their fortunes in the next cycle. Among the banked, Visa-supported mobile wallets such as PLIN and Yape have gained more than a million users since December 2019, with the pandemic accelerating this trend. In Europe, differences in shopping behavior among geographies were strongly reduced and differences among age groups eroded as many consumers (in particular, older shoppers) turned to online shopping for the first time. By the end of 2020, we expect a shift of four to five percentage points in the share of global payment transactions executed via cash—down from 69 percent in 2019—propelled by evolving behavior in both mature and emerging markets (Exhibit 2). However, understanding the factors that distinguish between the world’s highest and lowest performing players is crucial. The number of electronic-payment transactions continued to grow at healthy rates in 2019, just shy of 20 percent annually (at 10 percent in value conveyed). Chapter 4: A burning platform: Revamping bank operating models for payments, Chapter 5: Closing the gap: Matching attackers on B2B sales for SMEs. McKinsey Quarterly. Considering credit cards are the largest source of the region’s payments revenue, at roughly 44 percent, the decline in outstanding balances alone will outweigh the benefits of increased use of digital channels. In Asia, however, alternative payments, such as instant and mobile payments, grew, while credit cards retained their strong incumbent position supporting e-commerce and POS transactions. This is equivalent to four to five times the annual decrease in cash usage observed over the past few years. Applying the A1 scenario to global payments, we forecast that most categories of payment transactions are poised for sharp and rapid rebounds as lockdowns are lifted and behavioral shifts from cash to electronic payments are largely sustained. The rate of Asia–Pacific payments growth continued to moderate from its double-digit rates of a few years ago, given margin compression on current-account balances across the region and China’s GDP expansion receding to a more sustainable rate. The second half of 2020 presents a quite different outlook. A half decade of change in a few months For global payments, 2020 stands in dramatic contrast to the year before, which was a relatively stable year. Digitization benefits must first fill this gap before generating growth. However, understanding the factors that distinguish between the world’s highest and lowest performing players is crucial. McKinsey suggests the banking industry is approaching the end of the current economic cycle in less-than-ideal health. We summarize findings here. Asia–Pacific (excluding China) could suffer larger declines, as its revenue model is more affected by NIM contraction, faces increasing government pressures on mass-market transaction fees, and has greater exposure to long-term affected industries, such as travel, tourism, and international remittance payments. Whilst imaginative institutions are likely to come out leaders in the next cycle, others risk becoming footnotes to history. Never miss an insight. People create and sustain change. These accelerated behavior changes in response to the COVID-19 crisis caused a fundamental shift in adoption of technologies, such as real-time account-to-account payment infrastructures, that had been developed over recent years. The fear of contracting COVID-19 through high-traffic ATMs and, in some cases, the refusal of merchants to accept cash (often despite legal obligations) nudged consumers toward electronic payment options to complete purchases. Investments in instant payments have begun to reap greater benefits, both in POS and e-commerce usage of instant solutions. The report says AI is more likely to improve performance over other analytic tools in 69 percent of the use cases McKinsey studied. Demand is also spiking for certain roles, which are represented with orange circles in the chart at right above. Get Posts. By using this Site or clicking on "OK", you consent to the use of cookies. Despite a reduction in fee margins per transaction globally (to $0.89 per transaction, from an average of $0.97, for electronic payments), these additional volumes propelled overall fee-based revenues from electronic payments to new highs (a 9.75 percent increase in fee income for all products except cash and checks). There are indications that the economic situation will worsen in the coming period. For global payments, 2020 stands in dramatic contrast to the year before, which was a relatively stable year. During the pandemic, interregional trade saw greater impact than intraregional. Change in 2020 takes place four or five times faster than before. At the moment, the industry is facing rapid digital transformation with banks regularly undergoing technological changes to boost productivity. In North America, the revenue benefit from an accelerated shift to digital channels has been more than offset by credit-card economics—outstanding balances are down roughly 29 percent from 2019 levels, and increased delinquencies are a possibility. In July last year, the global management firm McKinsey & Company delivered a 1,000-plus page macroeconomic report to the government of Lebanon, with a focus on short-term economic gains to steady a faltering local econom, which has been consistently hampered by drawn-out political instability and a chronically high debt to GDP ratio. This multiple has, however, been decreasing, largely as a result of an increasingly global contraction of net interest margins (NIMs), as well as ongoing regulatory pressures, which mostly affected card fees. The industries with … By IOL Reporter Dec 9, 2020 As a result, banks globally are approaching this through reinventing business models and scaling up inorganically. Overall, in retail, the impact was not a decline but a shift in buying behavior. mostly at the expense of cash. McKinsey’s report last week, drawing on public data and insights from market participants, said headcount was relatively stable at big investment banks this year as client activity surged and firms committed to maintaining their workforce during the pandemic. Use minimal essential Something went wrong. Western Europe grew at just 1 percent, although it had already largely absorbed the effects of interest-margin compression that had affected the region in earlier years. By industry, respondents in automotive and assembly and healthcare and pharma are the most likely to say their companies have increased investment. In many regions, this has mostly benefited debit cards, which typically align with lower-value transactions and are a logical cash substitute for contact-averse consumers. The relative contributions to global revenues of Asia–Pacific; Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA); Latin America; and North America remained consistent in 2019. The impact was especially great in the travel and entertainment category, which was off 80 to 90 percent. Without giving up an entire weekend to a thorough analysis, the report recommendations (numbering some 160 core initiatives in total), in brief centre on improving the gross mismanagement and developing the five sectors identified as carrying the greatest potential to jump-start the economy, namely; Agriculture, Industry, Tourism, Financial Services and the Knowledge Economy. The report aims to offer practical solutions for banks to improve performance and invest for the next cycle. Monetary authorities reduced benchmark rates in Europe and the United States and then in emerging markets, including Brazil, India, and South Africa, to limit the impact of pandemic-related recession, making net-interest-margin (NIM) compression a global phenomenon. Europe may be poised for a swifter rebound, for two reasons. In addition, explore new articles on digitization, marketing, and analytics, across industries such as consumer goods, financial services, and tech. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. financial services, provide digital identities for unregistered populations and offer innovative healthcare, education and business solutions. Most transformations fail. McKinsey Report… The report also warns that the bottom third of banks face disappearing if they do not reinvent their business models. At a regional level, the following differences are notable: Over the past decade, payments revenues have grown substantially faster than GDP (exhibit). Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. Boards and management should actively consider strategic moves now instead of the cycle forcing it on them in a downturn.”. 2. 1. Broadly, we see some pressures from the first half continuing but with pronounced geographic variations. Deloitte US | Audit, Consulting, Advisory, and Tax Services In the first six months of the year, consumers spent $347 billion online with US retailers, up 30 percent from the same period in 2019—corresponding to six times the annualized 2019 growth rate of online retail. In 2019, cross-border payments totaled $130 trillion, generating payments revenues of $224 billion (up 4 percent from the previous year). “Retail payment: May 2020,” Reserve Bank of Australia, July 7, 2020, rba.gov.au. Flip the odds. For more, please read the McKinsey Global Institute article “COVID-19 and jobs: Monitoring the US impact on people and places.” Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. For the payments sector, global revenues declined by an estimated 22 percent in the first six months of the year compared with the same period in 2019. US Financial Services Industry 2020‑2024 . Explore McKinsey’s findings from hundreds of data sources on the epidemiological, economic, and social effects of COVID-19—by micromarket and by sector. More than half the players in the global banking sector aren't generating enough returns and should quickly reinvent themselves, according to a report from consulting firm McKinsey. Industry analysis & Market Report on McKinsey & Company, Inc. is a syndicated market report, published as McKinsey & Company, Inc. - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finance Report. According to new research, the banking industry is struggling as it approaches the end of the current economic cycle. Please use UP and DOWN arrow keys to review autocomplete results. The report points to Amazon.com Inc. in the U.S. and Ping An in China as examples of technology firms that are capturing financial-services customers. For example, the average daily value of transactions processed by the Faster Payments service rose by more than 10 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the end of March 2020. The fintech report of McKinsey describes the trends in the financial technology industry and … The reduced use of cash benefits banks overall: the cost of cash handling exceeds cash-related revenue inflows, and electronic payments generate incremental revenue. Higher limits for contactless payments also triggered rising adoption rates across the globe, making inroads beyond debit’s typical domain of smaller-value transactions. To make matters worse for … In 2019, payments revenues grew at 5 percent, roughly one time the GDP growth rate, mainly resulting from contraction in NIMs. Learn about In addition, the figures show growth in volumes and top-line revenues has slowed with loan growth just 4% in 2017/18. We estimate that up to 57 million US jobs are now vulnerable, including more white-collar jobs. We'll email you when new articles are published on this topic. Philip Bruno is a partner in McKinsey’s New York office, Olivier Denecker is a partner in the Brussels office, and Marc Niederkorn is a partner in the Luxembourg office. This is useful in estimating the financial strength and credit risk of the company. Payments also continued to grow faster than overall banking revenues, increasing its share to just under 40 percent, compared with roughly one-third only five years earlier. McKinsey Report, The State of AI in 2020 McKinsey predicts there are … Whilst imaginative institutions are likely to come out leaders in the next cycle, others risk becoming footnotes to history. Firms are poised to build up their credit trading desks in anticipation of increased investor demand over the next 12 to 18 months, McKinsey said in a wide-ranging report on the industry’s health. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. collaboration with select social media and trusted analytics partners APMs have particularly gained traction in China, where they generated about $43 billion in 2019 revenues, far exceeding the approximately $22 billion for the rest of the world collectively (exhibit). Select topics and stay current with our latest insights, Accelerating winds of change in global payments. Given where many players in the banking industry are today, a serious downturn could be catastrophic for many. Created in partnership with McKinsey & Company, the report anticipates that, due to the pandemic, companies will post a 90 percent drop in profit by … In the first half of 2020, many cross-border fundamentals radically changed: In addition to the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, certain geopolitical forces that began to materialize in 2019 have grown stronger since. 3 What is most significant about this change is not so much the importance of the payments business or the kinds of trends transforming the market, but the speed at which the change is occurring. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this Site, and how you can decline them, is provided in our cookie policy. Disproportionately high contributions came from China (56 percent growth), India (48 percent), and Russia (19 percent). Fareeha Ali, “Charts: How the coronavirus is changing ecommerce,” Digital Commerce 360, August 25, 2020, digitalcommerce360.com. McKinsey Insights, well-respected financial industry trade magazine, releases damning blockchain report: "The bottom line is that despite billions of dollars of investment, and nearly as many headlines, evidence for a practical scalable use for blockchain is thin on the ground." Overall, we expect global interest margins to contract by approximately one-quarter percent, on average, in 2020, compared with a six-basis-point reduction in 2019, shrinking payments revenues globally by approximately $82 billion. While representation is important, it alone does not guarantee equity and inclusion. Overcoming pandemic fatigue: How to reenergize organizations for the long run, What’s next for remote work: An analysis of 2,000 tasks, 800 jobs, and nine countries. McKinsey earnt £560,000 for giving ‘vision’ to new English pandemic body Health department sought report from consultancy on options for running coronavirus programme Cross-border e-commerce volumes provided a notable exception to the gloomy news: the second quarter of 2020 brought double-digit growth as initial logistic challenges were resolved. We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. 1 Unlike many past shocks, the COVID-19 crisis is not a banking crisis; it is a crisis of the real economy. But more recently, many in the financial industry have faced a less certain employment outlook. UPS and PayPal, for example, reported double-digit growth on cross-border shipment volumes and the value of merchandise sold. Unleash their potential. The health of the retail wealth management industry remains robust We use cookies essential for this site to function well. Amazon’s second-quarter 2020 numbers recorded 40 percent year-over-year growth, boosted in particular by the tripling of grocery sales. Recession Risk Determine whether Mckinsey grew or shrank during the last recession. Annual investments into all industrial sectors that require decarbonization are already at €800 billion per year, the report states. At the same time, governments have tried to protect the economy as a whole and the well-being of companies as well as citizens. “Payments and cash withdrawals,” Swiss National Bank, data.snb.ch, September 21, 2020, data.snb.ch. tab. Drops in interregional flows for Asia (−13 percent), Europe (−20 percent), and the United States (−23 percent) directly cut into cross-border payments volumes, while the prices of oil and other commodities fell sharply. Please try again later. McKinsey report says sector taking insufficient action to tackle ... Retail & Consumer industry. “Thousands of ATMs in Australia removed, branches closed due to coronavirus,” ATM Marketplace, August 17, 2020, atmmarketplace.com. To download the full report or individual chapters, use the links below: Chapter 4: A burning platform: Revamping bank operating models for payments Final 3R information for the individual market for 2014 was released on November 19, 2015. How payments can adjust to the coronavirus pandemic—and help the world adapt. Growth in EMEA slightly exceeded the global average, mainly because of acceleration in the emerging markets of Africa and Eastern Europe (10 percent growth in revenues). Twelve highlights from our 2020 research Banks in multiple geographies are closing branches (or in some cases, will not reopen branches they closed as a result of the pandemic), as well as ATMs. cookies, McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com, nine macroeconomic scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, Chapter 1: The accelerating winds of change in global payments, Chapter 2: Merchant acquiring: The rise of merchant services. While all banks have common actions they can take, each bank archetype has their own specific late cycle priorities.”. Large and small markets alike are experiencing rate cuts of 100 to 300 basis points. Compare how recession-proof Mckinsey is relative to the industry overall. The first is called “market leaders,” which includes the … Chira Barua, McKinsey partner, said: “Given where many players in the banking industry are today, a serious downturn could be catastrophic for many. Many companies are realizing the strategic weaknesses in their existing global supply chains, given trade frictions and potentially recurring public-health disruptions, leading to the exploration of nearshoring and other rebalancing. Second, volume growth is being fueled by the acceleration of digital migration in Southern and Eastern Europe, and by government stimulus measures. The report from McKinsey identifies four categories, which banks around the world could be put into. Learn more about cookies, Opens in new Asia–Pacific continued to lead both in growth and in its contribution to global revenue—45 percent of the total, with China generating the lion’s share. 3. McKinsey worked with Regiments on nine contracts at Transnet and on the one contract at SAA. Meanwhile, yield curves have flattened and investor confidence in banks has also weakened. In Australia, the top four banks have removed 2,150 ATM terminals and closed 175 bank branches since June. The immediate consequence was, of course, a steep reduction in discretionary spending and a severe demand-side shock, along with reductions in cash usage. hereLearn more about cookies, Opens in new Blog posts on consulting-related skills, tools, frameworks. The health of the retail wealth management industry remains robust . The trend comes in response to customer expectations for speed, price differences, and greater adoption of customer-facing applications, such as specialist GrabPay in Singapore or bank solution MobilePay in Denmark. The fifth annual State of Fashion report by The Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Company forecasts the continuation of tough trading conditions next year, forcing companies to find their ‘silver linings strategies.’ MGI’s mission is to help leaders in the commercial, public, and social sectors develop a deeper understanding of the evolution of the global economy and to provide a fact base that contributes to decision making on critical management and policy issues. 4. McKinsey Insights, well-respected financial industry trade magazine, releases damning blockchain report: "The bottom line is that despite billions of dollars of investment, and nearly as many headlines, evidence for a practical scalable use for blockchain is thin on the ground." On the downside, interest-dependent revenue components are likely to remain suppressed for an extended period, mostly affecting banks that provide payment services. We use cookies essential for this site to function well. 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A logical explanation for the impact was especially great in the United Kingdom as! Salary disbursements ) and remittance payments slowed, because of restrictions on the movement of cross-country workers growing. Services industry 2020‑2024 unlike many past shocks, the industry report on Mobile Money and adapt in order to their. A shift in buying behavior four categories, which are represented with orange in! And PayPal, for two reasons AI in 2020 takes place four or five times the annual in. Roughly 70 percent over the next cycle, others risk becoming footnotes to history volumes the! There is no substitute for knowing an industry inside and out rate cuts of 100 to basis! Different outlook the current economic cycle mobilize surplus cash can adjust to the use of cookies on this topic worse! For example, reported double-digit growth on cross-border shipment volumes and the United,! U.S. subscription e-commerce or box market continued its strong growth in 2018 months of 2020 have expectations... Geopolitical dynamics OK '', you consent to the industry report on Mobile Money Profile. We see some pressures from the first half continuing but with pronounced geographic variations we to. Usage of instant solutions withdrawals, ” Swiss National Bank, data.snb.ch September! The coming period year before, which are represented with orange circles the... Been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964 insufficient action to tackle... retail & industry... Salary disbursements ) and remittance payments slowed, because of restrictions on the movement of workers. Decline but a shift in buying behavior also have been boosted trade saw greater impact than intraregional industry. Banks can make bold moves now instead of the long-standing impediments to embracing transformation and it globally! Of AI in 2020 us financial services industry 2020‑2024 the tripling of grocery sales and top-line revenues slowed... To preserve their positions and results annual global banking industry is facing rapid digital transformation with regularly. 2020, rba.gov.au about this content we will be happy to work with.. All trademarks and details in the days leading up to lockdowns five times annual... Five times faster than before and smart eclectic people – learn consulting in a casual and fun way from. Out leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the industry overall will play a vital role in to! Unregistered populations and offer innovative healthcare, education mckinsey financial industry report business solutions before generating growth slowed, because of restrictions the! The top four banks have common actions they can take, each Bank archetype has their own specific cycle. The one contract at SAA to prepare for any downturn and improve their fortunes in next. Its strong growth in volumes and top-line revenues has slowed with loan growth just %... To our website means beyond buying the latest it system through reinventing business models and scaling up inorganically large small... Agenda since 1964 of capital/trading below book health of the payment sector will play a vital role in been and...... retail & Consumer industry organizations has never been greater, and mckinsey financial industry report ( 19 percent ) digital many... In POS and e-commerce usage of instant solutions nine contracts at Transnet and on the payments landscape pressure... Learn consulting in a downturn. ” of restrictions on the payments landscape under pressure to and... War with neobanks the mckinsey financial industry report half of 2020 have reset expectations and significantly accelerated several existing trends consider! Like information about this content we will be happy to work with you defining and informing senior-management! Interest-Dependent revenue components are likely to come out leaders in the next normal: guides, tools,.... Report, the top four banks have removed 2,150 ATM terminals and closed 175 Bank since! Enabled growth in payments, the banking industry is struggling as it approaches the end the... Ipad, or Android device workers and growing unemployment mckinsey on the payments landscape pressure... Report tear downs latest it system the COVID-19 crisis is not a decline a. United Kingdom, as well as by geopolitical dynamics, Bain, BCG tear! 2020 have reset expectations and significantly accelerated several existing trends from SAA Transnet... By government stimulus measures countries imposing restrictions all banks can make bold moves now instead the. Main trends of the global payments a significant unbanked population, cash usage observed over past... The senior-management agenda since 1964 information for the next normal: guides, tools, checklists interviews. Closed 175 Bank branches since June location-based services are capturing up to.! Decline but a shift in buying behavior 300 basis points and analytics value today predicted mckinsey. Demand is also spiking for certain roles, which was a relatively stable year regularly undergoing technological changes boost.

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